PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 22, 2011 – This latest Republic of Congo Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.20% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 2.75% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn b/d in 2001 is forecast to increase to an estimated 3.81mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should average 3.90mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.40mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and is expected to average an estimated 10.18mn b/d in 2010. From an estimated 10.52mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 12.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an Kenmore Bisque 15 inchi average 4.87mn b/d. This total is forecast to rise to 6.36mn b/d in 2010 and to reach 7.68mn b/d by 2015. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 123.4bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. The Republic of Congo makes no significant current contribution to regional gas supply or demand.
For 2010 as a whole, we are assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at about US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probab helicop ter technology ly peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl, compared with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year's level.
We assume that the Republic of Congo's real GDP will rise by 11.9% in 2010 and forecast average annual growth of 4.6% from 2010-2015. We see oil demand rising from an estimated 6,900b/d in 2010 to 8,900b/d in 2015. State oil company Societe Nationale des Petroles du Congo (SNPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Around a third of the oil produced goes directly to the government and is sold by SNPC on behalf of the state. Thanks to higher recent IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to increase from 274,000b/d in 2009 to a peak of 360,000b/d in 2011, before easing to 332,000b/d in 2015. Gas production should reach 2.0bcm by 2014/15. Consumption is expected to track the production trend.
Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast an 11.7% fall in the Republic of Congo's oil and gas liquids production, with volumes peaking at 360,000b/d in 2011 before falling steadily to 300,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 11,300b/d by 2020. Gas production is e rc helicopter market place xpected to rise to 3bcm by the end of the period. With demand moving in line, there is unlikely to be any need for imports or potential for net exports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
RoC is now ranked ninth in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It also takes ninth place, behind Egypt, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The county's score benefits from reasonable oil and gas output growth prospects, respectable reserves to production ratios (RPR) and relatively attractive licensing terms. The risk environment is shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. RoC is at the bottom of the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely. It now holds last place, behind even Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and forecast GDP per capita growth. The growth outlook for oil consumption and the country's low retail site intensity are relatively strong suits.
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